|Sydney Inner-City Apartment Market Glut Predicted to Push Prices Down|
A leading economic forecaster is warning that oversupply will cut Sydney apartment prices by up to 10 per cent.
The report by BIS Shrapnel estimates that 5,800 apartments are being built in inner-Sydney right now, with almost as many again planned to be completed over the next few years.
The report says the peak annual output of 4,500 units in 2016-17 is comparable to the last boom in 1999-2000, but the average of 3,800 new inner-city apartments per year over three years will be a record.
BIS Shrapnel's senior manager of residential property Angie Zigomanis, who wrote the report, says developers have been playing catch-up after a decade of undersupply in Sydney, but they look like soon getting ahead of themselves.
"The population growth in Sydney still stays pretty strong, rental demand will still be fairly strong, but it's just that the level of apartment construction now is moving up to a level that's probably approaching a level that's too high and that's unsustainable in the long-term," he told ABC News Online.
Mr Zigomanis does not expect this to occur in the short-term, but warns that the wave of new developments over the next few years is likely to result in supply exceeding demand.
"Once the market starts getting into oversupply then rents either flatten out or start falling," he said.
"This has the potential to also coincide with the Reserve Bank looking to start tightening interest rate policy as well and that combination will see the investment equation change and investors start becoming less confident about the market and prepared to pay lower prices for dwellings.
"So any new apartments that come back onto the market are likely to experience some sort of loss two or three years out from now."
Mr Zigomanis says the losses are unlikely to be large, but may prove a serious setback for those buying off-the-plan now expecting capital gains.
"Depends on location, etc, but I wouldn't be surprised if from their current purchase price they don't experience losses of perhaps 5 per cent, and perhaps selected developments up to 10 per cent."
In results released last week, property developer Mirvac said it planned to focus heavily on increasing apartment developments in the Sydney market, expecting that segment to remain strong for the next five years.
Mr Zigomanis says a lack of pre-sales a couple of years hence may force a rethink of such optimistic strategies.
"They require a certain level of pre-sales before they go ahead with construction," he said.
"Over the next couple of years we expect pre-sales will be pretty strong so it should be able to sustain the number Mirvac are talking about, but if they were assuming that demand would stay at current levels over the next say five years we suspect that won't be the case.